One Shock After Another with Mark Dowding
Global Rewire Podcast
In a new Andersen.Institute Global Rewire podcast, Craig Torres and I spoke with RBC BlueBay Asset Management Mark Dowding — and the title says it all: "One Shock After Another." (For context, the podcast was recorded before this week's FOMC meeting.)
From Trump's tariffs to the Iran conflict and its ripple effects on energy markets, Mark argues that we are living through one of the most volatile macro environments in decades. For active, relative-value investors, that's actually an opportunity.
A few themes that stuck with me:
🔹 The US economy remains resilient. Mark sees US growth potentially above 3% — with inflation risks skewed to the upside.
🔹 The Fed is likely to be on hold this year — hiking is not off the table, especially should inflation risks materialize.
🔹 Europe is a different story. Persistent fiscal weakness, energy exposure, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis are creating genuine recession risk — particularly if the disruptions are not resolved quickly.
🔹 Markets may be too complacent about geopolitical risk. Mark draws a striking parallel to early COVID — when markets didn't fully price in the disruption until it had already arrived.
🔹 Japan is at an inflection point. The Bank of Japan is gradually retreating from the market, and with reflationary policies pushing yields higher. Mark sees Japan as an opportunity.
🔹 Political research is inseparable from macro investing. Understanding the policy landscape isn't just context — it directly informs trade positioning.
In a world of constant shocks, having a clear analytical framework — and the discipline to act on it — matters more than ever.
Worth a listen for anyone navigating fixed income or global macro right now.
https://anderseninstitute.org/one-shock-after-another-with-mark-dowding/